Surprise Team in the Bracket
One team that it was a huge surprise to see in the bracket is UAB. The Blazers are ranked 46th in the NET, but with a 5-3 record in the first two quadrants and four additional losses, this was not a team that was in contention for an at-large bid. Despite that, they made their way through the Conference USA tournament beating three seed Florida Atlantic, one seed Middle Tennessee, and then finally the other three seed LA Tech in the championship. This was a massive bid steal from a team that not many predicted to make a run out of the C-USA. They’ll have a tough matchup against the five-seed Houston on Friday night.
Potential Mid-Major Cinderella Team
A mid-major school that may make a deep run in the tournament is the South Dakota State Jackrabbits. The only reason for this is their amazing offense. The Jackrabbits are the best three-point shooting team in the country and have the second-best scoring offense trailing only Gonzaga. For a team that takes a lot of threes, SDSU also has a ridiculous 52.49% field goal percentage. The issue for them will undoubtedly be on defense, as they lack the athleticism to get consistent stops against top-tier opponents. While defense will be a problem, it’s impossible to overlook their offensive power and that makes them a team look out for through the tournament.
Team on Upset Alert
One team that could suffer an upset loss early in the tournament is the Boilermakers of Purdue. Purdue simply doesn’t play good defense. They are outside of the top 150 in every meaningful defensive statistic including their 168th ranked scoring defense and the 180th three-point defense. Aside from that, the Boilermakers have a -2.1 turnover margin placing them 307th in the country. If that doesn’t scream March Madness upset then nothing does. Unfortunately for competitors, Purdue, much like South Dakota State, is one of the best offensive teams in the country. This Jaden Ivey lead offense is the 13th ranked scoring team and as a team has recorded the fourth-best three-point percentage in the country. Having a 7’4” and 295-pound center in Zach Edey helps the team quite a bit as well. With Edey pulling down rebounds, Ivey leading the offense, and Trevion Williams rounding out the stars, this is a very tough offense to stop. Although, Purdue is vulnerable to any team with either great coaching or great defense. If the coaching staff of a mid-major school can devise a game plan to stop Ivey and Williams and at least slow down Zach Edey, Purdue could be sent home early.
Longshot Champion Pick
The only 5+ seed that I believe could win the whole tournament come April is the Iowa Hawkeyes. Coming off of their Big 10 championship, they have been playing some of the best basketball in the country. The Hawkeyes are of course led by future lottery pick Kegan Murray. This is a player that I actually like more than the projected number one overall pick Jabari Smith because of his ability to be the savior for his team in tough situations. Not that Smith can’t make plays, but Murray is the type of player you can throw the ball to at the end of a game and tell him to go make a play while Smith isn’t. That ability from their star player along with the elite shooting of Jordan Bohannon is what puts Iowa in a position to make a deep run in the tournament. I believe Kegan Murray and Iowa have a chance to ride their momentum all the way to New Orleans.
Champion Pick
All of the brackets, predictions, and analysis will eventually boil down to two teams going head to head on April Fourth. Everything else will be thrown out the window and those teams will be the focus of the entire basketball world. My prediction for the winner of that game is the Gonzaga Bulldogs. No, it’s not the most exciting pick or the most dramatic pick, but I believe that the Zags are the best team in the field. There are approximately twelve teams that are truly in contention for the championship this year and none of them have the defensive ability to stop Gonzaga. The star power of Chet Holmgren, Drew Timme, and Andrew Nembhard compounded with the amazing cast of players and coaches they have around them will be too much for opponents to overcome. Despite having been a one seed four times since 2017, Gonzaga has never won a national championship, but this season could very well be their first.
