While a 10-12 overall record doesn’t look great, there is still slight hope for Penn State basketball to play in March. Just over a month ago, Penn State was coming off of a blowout win over Rutgers and riding a 3-1 stretch in Big Ten play. Even after a close loss to top-20 Ohio State, the Nittany Lions looked like they could be going dancing. Penn State then went on a 1-5 run and dropped out of all March Madness conversations. That stretch is also terrible for their NIT (National Invitation Tournament) hopes, as they are now on the outside looking in, to say the least. Yes, those games were all against quality opponents, but the Nittany Lions still should not have gone 1-5.
The season metrics really aren’t as bad as you would think with zero Quadrant 4 losses and just one Quadrant 3 loss, they just don’t have the wins necessary to have a solid Q score. They have three Quadrant 1 wins but only one Quadrant 2 win. With the recent win over Michigan State factored in, the Nittany Lions are 86th in the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings and 85th in RPI (Rating Percentage Index). Those scores are also hampered by the three non-conference games that Penn State lost due to COVID earlier in the season. A road game against VCU would have been tough to come out of with a win, but games against Quinnipiac and Delaware State would have been almost sure wins. Those games also would have been helpful in boosting Penn State’s overall record towards that .500 mark that is unofficially required for a team to make the NIT. While the NIT got rid of the .500 record requirement in 2017, not one sub-.500 team has ever made the tournament. That leads the public to believe that it is still required in the minds of the selection committee.
In order to get to that .500 mark, Penn State would have to go 4-2 in their last six games and win at least one game in the Big Ten tournament. One problem with that is that the Nittany Lions face 12th ranked Illinois and red hot Rutgers the last two games of the year. Plus, playing in the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions have the 22nd most difficult schedule in the nation, so any game is a challenge. Their upset win of Michigan State on February 15th set them on a solid track towards .500, but It really doesn’t look good for the Nittany Lions getting to that mark before the Big Ten tournament.
Although in terms of win chances, it wouldn’t be all that bad for Penn State to be a game below .500, as they almost want to play in the first round of the Big Ten tournament against a team like Nebraska or Maryland. It certainly gives them a better chance of recording a win than playing the seven seed, who could end up being a team like Michigan or Iowa, as their first game. Anything below one game under .500 going into the Big Ten tournament would nearly eliminate the chance of making the NIT unless Penn State would win three games in three days against high-quality opponents. All in all, the chance of seeing Penn State play in the NIT is slim, but if they can go on a run at the end of the season their postseason chances would grow exponentially.
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