After months of watching the college basketball season play out, it’s finally March and time for the Madness to begin. Championship week has begun with multiple mid-major schools punching their ticket to the Big Dance, and power five tournaments are on the docket later this week. Before the major tournaments begin, here are my top 16 teams.
1. Gonzaga
The Bulldogs have been rolling through teams and are the undisputed number one team in the country. They are winning their West Coast Conference games by an average of 28 points per game and have just two losses on the season. With St. Mary’s as the only true threat in the WCC tournament, the Zags are a sure bet to hold onto their number one status.
2. Arizona
Coach of the Year candidate Tommy Lloyd has Arizona in a great position heading into the last few weeks of the season. They don’t have the most impressive resume, but they’ve split their season series with UCLA and USC, and beaten Oregon and Illinois. Their only truly bad loss is away at Colorado and even that is forgivable. Without any further losses, this warrants a one seed for the Wildcats.
3. Auburn
The Auburn Tigers had their run as the number one team in the country, but with recent losses to Florida, Arkansas, and Tennessee, they’ve dropped down to number three. They have been impacted a little bit by analysts and fans getting tired of hearing about them but they have played fairly well lately. Over the course of the season, Auburn has been led by freshman Jabari Smith to wins over Kentucky, Alabama, and Florida, and as of now that places Auburn on the one line.
4. Duke
In Coach K’s final season, the Blue Devils are showing up. Some would look at their losses to Florida State, North Carolina, and Miami and say that Duke is a vulnerable team, but losses happen. In a 30-plus game season, it is so hard to stay perfect that teams will have bad nights. It is worth mentioning that Duke has lost just one game by more than five points all year. They have super high-quality wins against Kentucky and Gonzaga and that awards them a one-seed as of now.
5. Kentucky
One of the best college basketball programs in the country, Kentucky has a chance to add to their national championship count this year. Forward Oscar Tshiebwe who averages 16 points and 15 rebounds has been instrumental in their success. While Kentucky has lost six games, all of those have been quadrant one games. They also have wins over the likes of Kansas, Alabama, and Tennessee, and that places them right on the bubble between a one and a two seed.
6. Baylor
Baylor has been an up-and-down team this year, recording a win over Villanova back in December, but then not showing that power again with losses to Kansas and twice to Texas Tech. The Bears have been competitive in most of their losses, but they did lose by double digits to Texas and Kansas. Their recent win over Kansas helps their resume a lot, but it isn’t enough to lock them in as a one-seed. Their previous game against Kansas is an acceptable loss, especially with the win to avenge it, but their losses to Oklahoma State and Alabama may be what drops them off of the one line.
7. Kansas
The Jayhawks have an exceptional resume this season with their only true blemishes having been losses to Dayton and TCU. Their six losses have all been against NCAA tournament teams with the exception of Dayton. They haven’t looked especially dominant this season with games against Stephen F. Austin and Kansas State being single-digit wins. That being said, their quality wins over teams like Baylor and Texas Tech have placed them with Kentucky on the bubble between a one seed and a two seed.
8. Villanova
The big dog of the Philadelphia “Big 5,” Villanova hasn’t been one of the elite one seeds this season, but they really haven’t had much of a chance to prove that they can be. They haven’t played any AP top ten teams this season, and while they have played and beaten Providence, that alone isn’t enough to prove that they can compete with the likes of Gonzaga and Arizona. Also hampering their one-seed resume are a blowout loss to Baylor, a loss to Creighton, and getting swept by Marquette. Their recent loss to UConn isn’t that terrible of a blemish as UConn is ranked, but it certainly doesn’t help. Of course writing about Villanova and not mentioning Wooden Award candidate Collin Gillespie is impossible. He suffered a season-ending torn MCL during the 2020-21 season and many wonder if Villanova’s season would have gone past the Sweet Sixteen had he not been hurt for all of March Madness. He’s averaging sixteen points per game this season but that does not tell the whole story. Gillespie is the backbone of this team and Villanova would not be where it is without him.
9. Purdue
While the Big 10 is a very tough conference, Purdue has not looked like a top ten team in conference play. Although they have just six losses and wins over Illinois, Ohio State, and Iowa, so they haven’t really given a reason to drop them out of the top ten. Their defense has been a big reason the Boilermakers look shaky. They have the 171st ranked scoring defense, the 203rd three-point defense and they have the 285th turnover margin according to ncaa.com. It’s clear that their offense is the reason they win games as they have the sixth-ranked scoring offense in the country. While this has given them success so far, when March rolls around teams have to play both sides of the ball, so Purdue will be a team on upset alert right from the jump.
10. Providence
Rivaled only by Wisconsin as the biggest surprise in position for a great March Madness seed, the Providence Friars have been amazing this season. They won the Big East regular-season championship, and have recorded wins against teams such as Texas Tech and UConn. While they did fall to Villanova, they have another shot at them in their season finale on March 1st. Many skeptics point to the Friars’ 11-1 record in games decided by single digits as luck, but in order to come out on top of all those games, they were incredibly disciplined and cool under pressure, which doesn’t come from luck. Their clutch performances are a huge reason they are in line for a very nice seed come Selection Sunday.
11. Tennessee
Analysts had varying degrees of confidence in Tennessee in the preseason, some giving them one seed potential, and others projecting a mediocre season. It’s safe to say that those who chose the former were closer, while not 100% correct. As of March seventh the Volunteers are looking like a three or potentially a four seed. They have some super high quality wins over Auburn, Kentucky, and Arizona. The Vols also backed that up with taking care of business against lesser teams. They don’t have a single loss outside of the first quadrant. This is a team that flew under the radar for the early portion of the season, then burst onto the scene and set themselves up for a deep run in the tournament.
12. Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have been a team that has shown that they deserve to be regarded as a program on the top tier of college basketball. They have had so many great seasons recently including a trip to the championship game and this season is no different. Their resume is amazing, their metrics are good, and they have looked great across the board this season. They don’t have a single loss that isn’t quad one and they have recorded wins over Baylor, Texas, and Kansas. This is a team that’s poised for a deep tournament run as a three seed.
13. UCLA
After their Final Four loss last season, UCLA has had an interesting year. They opened the year as the number two team in the country and looked like a top team through January with their only loss coming to Oregon. After that, they dropped three of their next four and eventually added another loss to Oregon, dropping them out of the top ten. Their recent win over USC helps out their resume a bit, but the Bruins look more like a three, four, or even a five seed than a one or two.
14. Wisconsin
Another one of the biggest surprises this season, Wisconsin was projected to be the tenth-ranked team in the Big 10 in the preseason. They won nine out of their first ten games including wins over Purdue and Ohio State. They completed the season sweep of Purdue and Nebraska is their only truly bad loss. They’ve come close to adding to that a few times, with single-digit wins over Penn State, Minnesota, and Nebraska, but they’ve been able to pull it out. Their recent win over Purdue has jumped them up in the rankings, but then their loss to Nebraska knocked them right back.
15. Illinois
The Illini have been one of the most confusing teams in the country this season. They have wins over teams like Iowa and Michigan who certainly aren’t bad, but then they have losses to Rutgers, Maryland, and Cincinnati. The crowning jewels of Illinois’ resume are their win over Wisconsin and their number one seed in the Big Ten tournament. What makes them confusing is that when you look at their resume, they don’t look anything like the champion of the best conference in basketball. I don’t see the Illini making any sort of run past the Sweet Sixteen in March Madness.
16. Arkansas
The final team making the cut for the top 16, Arkansas has had a great year for their program. Arkansas has never really been recognized as an amazing basketball program, but they have had some exceptional seasons recently. This year they have been a little bit shaky at times with quadrant three losses to Hofstra and Vanderbilt. While those are bad losses, the Razorbacks have proven themselves with wins over two potential one seeds in Kentucky and Auburn. Arkansas could certainly be a team that is still alive through the Elite Eight.