As American politicians and a businessman bicker over voters to be elected the 45th President of the United States, North Korea conducts nuclear missile testing, and as ISIL wreaks havoc across the world, news channels have devoted few of their air time to cover another important topic that may have global repercussions. On June 23, 2016, citizens of the British, Irish, and Commonwealth are able to vote to decide whether or not the United Kingdom should remain a part of the European Union. It’s hard to imagine why we would care about our former overlords across the water, but in fact, the referendum will greatly affect the United States and the world, and determine the future of democracy and peace in the West.
The European Union is a political and economic partnership founded after World War Two to promote trade and cooperation between European countries in order to deter war on the continent. Currently, it allows trade and people to freely move between member nations (known as the Schengen Area); circulates its own currency, the euro; and even has its own parliament, which sets rules for all member nations, including on the environment and transport.
The leave campaign is displeased with certain aspects of being a member of the EU, such as open borders with other countries, membership fees, and the freedom to make trade agreements with other countries outside of the EU. They also believe that leaving the European Union will boost the economy and make the United Kingdom an independent nation. Those campaigning for staying in the European Union believe the opposite will happen.
Leave campaigners believe that there will be a growth in jobs as large companies are freed from EU regulations and benefit smaller businesses that don’t trade with the EU. Those who want to stay say that 3-4 million jobs could be lost from manufacturers moving to EU countries with cheaper labor. Trade and investment could cause jobs to grow scarcer if it falls after a Brexit, but if it increases, more jobs would be created. Wages may rise from a Brexit, which would be beneficial to workers, but bad for employers. The economy could go either way, with from a 9.5% decrease in GDP to a 1.6% rise in GDP by 2030.
The UK would also be able to regain full control of its borders and the power to issue visas and control immigration. This could increase job opportunities for British people in the UK and ease the pressure housing and service providers. Stay campaigners argue that immigration of citizens of the EU, taxes paid by migrants, and migrant labor has had an overall positive effect on the UK economy.
The UK would also be able to save £8.5 billion, about $12.5 billion dollars, a year if it left the EU for membership fees. The UK would be able to use the money on other important things, such as science funding. Stay campaigners argue that the UK will still have to pay the EU if the country wants access to the single market, and the EU already supports UK universities and scientists with millions of dollars of funding and grants.
The debate has become heated in the UK in the months leading up to the referendum. Both Leave and Stay campaigns have their own views, plans, and projections for the risks of staying or leaving the UK. Even President Obama, when he visited the UK in April, weighed in on the debate. He personally believes that leaving the EU would not be a good idea.
“The United Kingdom is at its best when it is helping to lead a strong Europe,” Obama said. “It leverages UK power to be part of the European Union.”
Many Republicans and British Leave campaigners have condemned Obama for having his say in the matter, but leaving in the EU would also threaten American and European interests. In a time when ISIS is building its “caliphate” in the Middle East and Russia is become more hostile to Western nations, a Brexit might prompt other nations to follow suit, further fracturing unity in Europe, and upset the global economy. The UK would also become a country watching the world stage instead of actively participating in its events. If Scotland decides to hold a referendum for independence again in order to remain in the EU, the UK would also lose its Trident nuclear programme, a nuclear deterrent for the UK.
In our world now marked by unrest, unity is important for the United States and its allies. If the UK decides to leave the European Union on June 23, that unity might be threatened. Although the United Kingdom may benefit from leaving the EU, perhaps it will be at the sacrifice of world peace. The whole world will be watching as British voters make this important decision a month from now, just as they will watch our own election in November.